Society · Protocols

PropheticQuorum

Aligning predictions before aligning votes

Definition

Mechanism

A two-stage consensus protocol. Phase 1 (reality Check): Agents receive a proposed action. Each runs a local SimulationTrace to predict the outcome State. They vote to confirm they share the SAME prediction. If predictions diverge, the protocol halts for model alignment. Phase 2 (Value judgment): Only after predictions match do agents vote on whether the predicted State is desirable. This ensures consensus is based on shared reality, not just shared language. It splits consensus into two phases: reality Check (via regime sensing) and Value judgment (via NormativeJudge).

Preconditions

  1. Determinism level of Simulation engine is high

Invariants

  1. Prediction Precedence: Vote (reality) must pass before Vote (desirability)
  2. Shared Vision: Action cannot proceed if >X% of agents predict different outcomes

Risks

Failure modes

  1. Model divergence (agents cannot agree on what will happen, so they never get to vote on the plan).

  2. High compute cost (N agents running N simulations).

Relationships

Builds on

References

Infrastructure

Check

Side-effect-free observational verification yielding Verified/Falsified/Unknown

Infrastructure

State

System condition at time T

Infrastructure

Value

A measure of utility

Vote

Provide standard decision mechanism with integrity guarantees

Nothing in this library builds on this pattern yet.

Reference

Parameters

confidence_weighting Boolean, {true, false}
Weight votes by stated confidence
prediction_threshold Probability, [0.6, 0.95]
Agreement level for valid prediction

Identity

Ref
PropheticQuorum#f7ff
Sema ID
sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:f7fff3a87881c7f923e067c30eee122443ae6ab47c2831edac0eccc1f1e01230
Ring
1
Tier
1
Updated
2026-11-11
Supersedes
  • sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:192eabb9f8aa32fddb88760964cb4266afa565c1ab94e1091395712764293741
  • sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:c5d889696c7dab154033eb64aa8858bdd88171cfb5d45a85dbbe806b7f1d8641
  • sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:1091d4dbc1638dc67cda263e645f50bda77352363ce4ea5dbf24c281781401ba
  • sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:83cc35fdf3dbd331b9c44c9c7d34a0db335d339ecd75d62ad5923fb83e9b7503
  • sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:fb6b841338e2ec6f9e0ad6afab1eb7b37128a778ce618fb95aebdbefdb791b57