---
slug: "PropheticQuorum"
name: "PropheticQuorum"
type: "Protocols"
layer: "Society"
ref: "PropheticQuorum#f7ff"
sema_id: "sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:f7fff3a87881c7f923e067c30eee122443ae6ab47c2831edac0eccc1f1e01230"
tags: ["Society","Protocols"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "bootstrap"
index_url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/index.json
url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/PropheticQuorum/
related: ["Check","NormativeJudge","Simulation","SimulationTrace","State","Value","Vote","Quorum","sema:SimulationTrace#mh:SHA-256:e778ab4f3e22ce60d3f822aeb249ae83007ad8cc505e476b01b4356f984aebd3","RegimeSense"]
---

# PropheticQuorum

Aligning predictions before aligning votes

Layer: Society · Category: Protocols

## Mechanism

A two-stage consensus protocol. Phase 1 (reality [Check](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Check.md)): Agents receive a proposed action. Each runs a local [SimulationTrace](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/SimulationTrace.md) to predict the outcome [State](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/State.md). They vote to confirm they share the SAME prediction. If predictions diverge, the protocol halts for model alignment. Phase 2 ([Value](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Value.md) judgment): Only after predictions match do agents vote on whether the predicted [State](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/State.md) is desirable. This ensures consensus is based on shared reality, not just shared language. It splits consensus into two phases: reality [Check](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Check.md) (via regime sensing) and [Value](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Value.md) judgment (via [NormativeJudge](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/NormativeJudge.md)).

## Invariants

- Prediction Precedence: [Vote](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Vote.md) (reality) must pass before [Vote](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Vote.md) (desirability)
- Shared Vision: Action cannot proceed if >X% of agents predict different outcomes

## Preconditions

- Determinism level of [Simulation](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Simulation.md) engine is high

## Failure modes

- Model divergence (agents cannot agree on what will happen, so they never get to vote on the plan).
- High compute cost (N agents running N simulations).

## Parameters

- `confidence_weighting` (Boolean, {true, false}): Weight votes by stated confidence
- `prediction_threshold` (Probability, [0.6, 0.95]): Agreement level for valid prediction

## Builds on

- [Check](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Check.md) (Infrastructure; References)
- [NormativeJudge](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/NormativeJudge.md) (Mind; References)
- [Simulation](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Simulation.md) (Mind; References)
- [SimulationTrace](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/SimulationTrace.md) (Mind; References)
- [State](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/State.md) (Infrastructure; References)
- [Value](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Value.md) (Infrastructure; References)
- [Vote](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Vote.md) (Society; References)

## Used by

—

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:f7fff3a87881c7f923e067c30eee122443ae6ab47c2831edac0eccc1f1e01230`
- Ref: `PropheticQuorum#f7ff`
- Supersedes:
  - `sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:192eabb9f8aa32fddb88760964cb4266afa565c1ab94e1091395712764293741`
  - `sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:c5d889696c7dab154033eb64aa8858bdd88171cfb5d45a85dbbe806b7f1d8641`
  - `sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:1091d4dbc1638dc67cda263e645f50bda77352363ce4ea5dbf24c281781401ba`
  - `sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:83cc35fdf3dbd331b9c44c9c7d34a0db335d339ecd75d62ad5923fb83e9b7503`
  - `sema:PropheticQuorum#mh:SHA-256:fb6b841338e2ec6f9e0ad6afab1eb7b37128a778ce618fb95aebdbefdb791b57`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/PropheticQuorum/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/#PropheticQuorum)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/PropheticQuorum.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/index.json)