Infrastructure · Data Structures

Probability

Likelihood measure for uncertain events

Definition

Mechanism

A measure of likelihood on [0,1] expressing the degree of belief or frequency with which an Event is expected to occur. Forms the basis for risk assessment, decision-making under uncertainty, and Bayesian updating.

Invariants

  1. Bounded: 0 ≤ P ≤ 1
  2. Normalization: P(certain) = 1, P(impossible) = 0
  3. Additivity: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) for mutually exclusive events

Risks

Failure modes

None stated.

Relationships

Builds on

References

Event

Discrete temporal occurrence

Used by

References

Risk

Quantified potential for negative outcome

Reference

Data schema

{
  "type": "number",
  "minimum": 0,
  "maximum": 1,
  "description": "Probability value between 0 and 1"
}

Identity

Ref
Probability#d165
Sema ID
sema:Probability#mh:SHA-256:d16533629fc1edf3af11e947ff110077d224eae3176315e57732652ea8072102
Ring
0
Tier
1
Updated
2026-11-11
Supersedes
  • sema:Probability#mh:SHA-256:850f439bbe870068f2129226975bb980e6714af43e55295a5b9dff7fed40f133