Mind · Reasoning
Estimate
Predictive resource costing
Definition
Mechanism
The predictive Think process of calculating the probable Value cost of a Task before execution. Two modes: HeuristicSnap for fast rough estimates, Simulation for accurate expensive ones. Outputs a Bid carrying an interval, its coverage, and the reference class it was drawn from. Consumes Budget.
Invariants
- The interval states the coverage it claims.
- The estimate names its reference class, or records that it had none.
- The estimator is given its allowance from Budget before starting, and returns on reaching it.
Risks
Failure modes
Overconfidence
intervals narrower than the evidence supports.
Anchoring
estimates biased by irrelevant prior information.
Planning Fallacy
systematic underestimation of time and cost.
Allowance exhausted
returns a wide interval a caller may read as a point estimate.
Relationships
Builds on
Accepts
Infrastructure
The atomic unit of intent
Composes with
Atomic cognitive step
References
Infrastructure
Resource allocation limit
Rapid, low-cost decision making via pattern recognition
A virtualized execution
Infrastructure
A measure of utility
Yields
Society
Binding offer from solver to execute task
Used by
Composes with
Estimation via decomposition
References
Deepen only while expected improvement plus an exploration credit, divided by incremental cost, exceeds a domain threshold
Reference
Parameters
estimation_allowanceRatio, (0.0, 1.0]- Share of the task's budget the estimator may spend.
target_coverageRatio, (0.0, 1.0)- Coverage the published interval claims, e.g. 0.8 or 0.95.
Signature
Think(Value)