{
  "handle": "Estimate",
  "mechanism": "The predictive {{think}} process of calculating the probable {{value}} cost of a {{task}} before execution. Two modes: {{heuristic_snap}} for fast rough estimates, {{simulation}} for accurate expensive ones. Outputs a {{bid}} carrying an interval, its coverage, and the reference class it was drawn from. Consumes {{budget}}.",
  "gloss": "Predictive resource costing",
  "signature": [
    "Think(Value)"
  ],
  "failure_modes": [
    "Overconfidence: intervals narrower than the evidence supports.",
    "Anchoring: estimates biased by irrelevant prior information.",
    "Planning Fallacy: systematic underestimation of time and cost.",
    "Allowance exhausted: returns a wide interval a caller may read as a point estimate."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "The interval states the coverage it claims.",
    "The estimate names its reference class, or records that it had none.",
    "The estimator is given its allowance from {{budget}} before starting, and returns on reaching it."
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "ring": 1,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:bb3078fc4f974c17821e162f0034230b653c9ebd70c4655e86924d1292b1d449",
      "sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:28d2e9662fc904a5d5662b8b532a2c14a7ed47f8cda950a58875e07f249207df",
      "sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:ae720093041b7c69a7131328b912157311dc43e4491a2125c5da449482c77b94",
      "sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:0f4428479417ff278eec7ffe9149e65049956fe2f4bfd5d3f8ebdd0b708428fd"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Reasoning"
    ]
  },
  "sema_ref": "Estimate#3bac",
  "sema_id": "sema:Estimate#mh:SHA-256:3bacc0606623a0603b271a835b54157c2e86389c4282af86d88cd1ddd9ecf917",
  "sema_stub": "3bac",
  "parameters": [
    {
      "name": "estimation_allowance",
      "type": "Ratio",
      "range": "(0.0, 1.0]",
      "description": "Share of the task's budget the estimator may spend."
    },
    {
      "name": "target_coverage",
      "type": "Ratio",
      "range": "(0.0, 1.0)",
      "description": "Coverage the published interval claims, e.g. 0.8 or 0.95."
    }
  ],
  "dependencies": {
    "accepts": {
      "task": "sema:Task#mh:SHA-256:a85010f508f85055170c396c8fa390125c1206888c565ac10651f3969a339f8d"
    },
    "composes_with": {
      "think": "sema:Think#mh:SHA-256:5177aa242fffd16d7ed24e5f8c3e0d5e86c5a26e299cc2d4b8a07f4756126025"
    },
    "references": {
      "budget": "sema:Budget#mh:SHA-256:4e3e536c9ecec8c1b0af017cfd0a26ba00e9f96047de4a690bf9d3db7f3720ef",
      "heuristic_snap": "sema:HeuristicSnap#mh:SHA-256:d683f415a9eabd2639464e981993ed784e7f9aed6800f92abe66182df817696f",
      "simulation": "sema:Simulation#mh:SHA-256:1058e7090079e846251ed480d7afec0328809d22bebb6b205425b2de614787c3",
      "value": "sema:Value#mh:SHA-256:37fd75758d04cdd7f57a636ccb5394d463713d60c33b694e37ab71f4a5a896f8"
    },
    "yields": {
      "bid": "sema:Bid#mh:SHA-256:647f5a901a75ad0c5535dd1a16a2e2eb1f4295d88e55b592f101ea393c9d23b1"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Reasoning",
  "used_by": {
    "composes_with": {
      "Fermi": "sema:Fermi#mh:SHA-256:f206e74f19af3eb55825b02c2192779a627ddff7b1c465a09d73431b863232db"
    },
    "references": {
      "MarginalValueRule": "sema:MarginalValueRule#mh:SHA-256:661109205c507b2c26d683d091de7f8b782bf2d6c2e9192373b242a9b078ac71"
    }
  }
}