Mind · Strategy
UncertaintyMap
Systematic categorization of ignorance
Definition
Mechanism
Known-Unknown Matrix: Categorize all relevant factors into: Known-Known (facts), Known-Unknown (questions), Unknown-Unknown (blind spots). For each Known-Unknown, estimate cost to resolve. Prioritize high-impact uncertainties. Actively Probe for Unknown-Unknowns. Utilizes Prioritize, ConfidenceCalibrate.
Invariants
- Every factor must be categorized exactly once.
Risks
Failure modes
False Precision
Treating a Known-Unknown (risk) as a Known-Known (fact) with a wide error bar.
Relationships
Builds on
References
Aligning subjective confidence with objective frequency
Ordering tasks by importance and urgency
Infrastructure
Active verification query
Used by
References
Epistemic status: genuinely don't know
Reference