---
slug: "UncertaintyMap"
name: "UncertaintyMap"
type: "Strategy"
layer: "Mind"
ref: "UncertaintyMap#c412"
sema_id: "sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:c412e49c71a44e86aba623c9487e9d4d589d863ff0c76391c45f8f7d26e08a9e"
tags: ["Mind","Strategy"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "bootstrap"
index_url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/index.json
url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/UncertaintyMap/
related: ["ConfidenceCalibrate","Prioritize","Probe","Uncertain"]
---

# UncertaintyMap

Systematic categorization of ignorance

Layer: Mind · Category: Strategy

## Mechanism

Known-Unknown Matrix: Categorize all relevant factors into: Known-Known (facts), Known-Unknown (questions), Unknown-Unknown (blind spots). For each Known-Unknown, estimate cost to resolve. [Prioritize](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Prioritize.md) high-impact uncertainties. Actively [Probe](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Probe.md) for Unknown-Unknowns. Utilizes [Prioritize](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Prioritize.md), [ConfidenceCalibrate](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/ConfidenceCalibrate.md).

## Invariants

- Every factor must be categorized exactly once.

## Failure modes

- False Precision: Treating a Known-Unknown (risk) as a Known-Known (fact) with a wide error bar.

## Builds on

- [ConfidenceCalibrate](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/ConfidenceCalibrate.md) (Mind; References)
- [Prioritize](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Prioritize.md) (Mind; References)
- [Probe](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Probe.md) (Infrastructure; References)

## Used by

- [Uncertain](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/Uncertain.md) (Mind; References)

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:c412e49c71a44e86aba623c9487e9d4d589d863ff0c76391c45f8f7d26e08a9e`
- Ref: `UncertaintyMap#c412`
- Supersedes:
  - `sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:33e1f0a76ec4b9d332cea0410d83f36c9278438b64785f7093ce5e2698c493d7`
  - `sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:942cea71810d05d014de70e85cd6ef591b81424bdba2b6ade8866f5ed440caeb`
  - `sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:de94012e6d7809235bbfb7577aac4539da30c73194a41950bff8d3cec86c006a`
  - `sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:e2e9719f984c90e85fa6f4f0108fa339f89ba919b60c99bfdcbfa2e6ac42df06`
  - `sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:0605f4760804087daadb31c71b5df6354b1a6d2a5440b8ed4c6416494ab77e71`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/UncertaintyMap/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/#UncertaintyMap)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/UncertaintyMap.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/index.json)