Infrastructure · Data Structures
Risk
Quantified potential for negative outcome
Definition
Mechanism
A structured representation of potential negative outcomes. It combines: 1. Probability (likelihood of occurrence), 2. Severity (impact Metric if it occurs), 3. Mitigation (actions to reduce probability or severity), 4. Trigger (conditions that indicate the risk is materializing). Risks are attached to steps, aggregated at the manifest level, and may violate constraints if they materialize.
Invariants
- Quantification: probability and severity are estimated, not just named.
- Every risk names its disposition — a mitigation, or an explicit acceptance.
- Monitoring: triggers are observable during execution.
Risks
Failure modes
Risk Blindness
Failing to identify a material risk.
Risk Theater
Documenting risks without meaningful mitigation.
Probability Miscalibration
Systematically under/over-estimating likelihood.
Cascade Blindness
Missing that one risk triggers others.
Relationships
Builds on
References
Definition of a quantitative property and its value semantics
Likelihood measure for uncertain events
Used by
References
Mind
Progress that also sharpens the signs that going further in the same direction would do harm
Dialectic blueprint of a system mechanism with temporal projections
An ordered sequence of steps to achieve a goal
Formal state machine governing task progression
Reference
Data schema
{
"type": "object",
"required": [
"risk_id",
"probability",
"severity",
"mitigation",
"trigger"
],
"properties": {
"risk_id": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Unique identifier"
},
"probability": {
"type": "number",
"minimum": 0,
"maximum": 1,
"description": "Likelihood of occurrence"
},
"severity": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Impact metric if materialized"
},
"mitigation": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "string"
},
"description": "Actions reducing probability or severity, or an explicit acceptance of the risk as it stands."
},
"trigger": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Observable condition indicating materialization"
}
}
}