Mind · Strategy
PreMortem
Simulating failure to identify hidden risks
Definition
Mechanism
For a contemplated course, state an unwanted outcome and reason as though it has already occurred. Ask what caused it and record course- and context-linked causal scenarios. Return those scenarios; selection, ranking, and response remain caller choices.
Preconditions
- A contemplated course is identified.
Postconditions
- Course-linked causal failure scenarios, or an explicit none-found result, recorded.
Invariants
- Prospective Hindsight: During scenario generation, the selected unwanted outcome is treated as already having occurred, without asserting its probability.
- Causal Specificity: Each recorded scenario names a causal explanation linked to the course and context; generic bad luck alone is insufficient.
Risks
Failure modes
Performative Doomerism
Recording generic disasters disconnected from the course or context.
Relationships
Root pattern: builds on nothing in this library.
Used by
Composes with
Agent that architects mechanistic design proposals
References
Preventing results-oriented thinking
Reference