Mind · Inference
HindsightBlock
Preventing results-oriented thinking
Definition
Mechanism
Decision-Time Evaluation: When evaluating past decision, reconstruct information available AT DECISION TIME. Judge decision quality by expected value given that information, not by outcome. Good decisions can have bad outcomes. Bad decisions can have good outcomes. It mirrors PreMortem logic after the fact, reconstructing the ex-ante probability space to judge decision quality independent of outcome.
Preconditions
- Prediction registry active
Invariants
- No Revision: Log is immutable
- Prior Commitment: Prediction(T) must be cryptographically committed before Outcome(T+delta)
Risks
Failure modes
{{outcome}} Blindness
Ignoring outcomes entirely prevents learning from black swans or model errors.
Relationships
Builds on
Nothing in this library builds on this pattern yet.
Reference
Parameters
lookback_windowDuration, [1min, 24h]- How far back to evaluate
regret_thresholdFloat, [0.0, 0.5]- Max acceptable regret score