Mind · Inference
ConfoundedAttribution
Several things changed together, and the effect is credited to the one in view
Definition
Mechanism
An outcome changes after several things changed at about the same time: a feature shipped in the same week as a price change and a holiday, a fix went out with a dependency upgrade, a policy started as the season turned. The effect is credited to the change in view, usually the one the attributor made, championed or was asked about, while the others, or a common cause behind both the change and the outcome, could account for it as well. The attribution may be right; what is missing is a reason that it, rather than the others, accounts for the effect. A comparison that separates the changes, or a difference only the credited change could make, settles it. An effect with a single candidate change, or one whose alternatives have been ruled out, is not an instance.
Invariants
- An outcome is credited to one change while other changes, or a cause common to the change and the outcome, could account for it.
- No observation or comparison separates the credited change from the others.
Risks
Failure modes
Credit to the change in view
the effect is attributed to the change the attributor made or was asked about.
Common cause missed
a factor behind both the change and the outcome goes unexamined.
Attribution frozen
once credited, the change is not re-examined when another candidate comes to light.
Relationships
Root pattern: builds on nothing in this library.
Nothing in this library builds on this pattern yet.