{
  "handle": "RedQueenRace",
  "gloss": "In a co-evolving environment an agent must keep changing just to hold its position, because the yardstick of fitness moves with every rival's change",
  "mechanism": "Agents that prey on, parasitise or compete with each other each change in response to the others. Each change is an {{exogenous_stress}} for the rest, which must change in turn to keep the same rate of success, as the Red Queen runs to stay in place. Innovation is then required just to keep up, and growth goes sideways as much as forwards. Over time the criteria for success get stricter (like password rules tightening in an arms race with attackers), so the target itself moves and earlier and later generations cannot be compared on one scale. Examples include immune systems and pathogens, jamming and counter-jamming in air defence, and competing firms.",
  "invariants": [
    "Each party's change alters the conditions of success for the others",
    "Standing still means losing ground",
    "Fitness at different times is measured against different yardsticks"
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "Two or more agents whose success depends on each other's current form"
  ],
  "failure_modes": [
    "Treating a past winning shape as permanently safe",
    "Measuring progress against a fixed yardstick while rivals move it"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "path": [
      "Physics",
      "Dynamics"
    ],
    "ring": 1,
    "tier": 2,
    "source": "Leigh Van Valen (1973); used in Adam Timlett, On the Origin of Risk (2025), Ch 2 p.37-38, Ch 16 p.114-115"
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:RedQueenRace#mh:SHA-256:4ec7a4f123f4db28da17cfca71c4aa7fb3f78c892e01a3a6d049304b26a9709a",
  "sema_ref": "RedQueenRace#4ec7",
  "sema_stub": "4ec7",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "exogenous_stress": "sema:ExogenousStress#mh:SHA-256:6a33d65f1361a95ad72b8a8d59c90bf253e08f804e2a79532977d5113987b672"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Physics",
  "sema_category": "Dynamics",
  "used_by": {}
}