---
slug: "NaturalProblem"
name: "NaturalProblem"
type: "Reasoning"
layer: "Mind"
ref: "NaturalProblem#ea59"
sema_id: "sema:NaturalProblem#mh:SHA-256:ea59543ebcccb8df82bcc1a5e3dace47428a178230154ac53345b0e39daae102"
tags: ["Mind","Reasoning"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "origin-of-risk"
index_url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/index.json
url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/NaturalProblem/
related: ["Exaptation","LudicFallacy","MetaAccuracy","MetaPrecision","ConcurrentBetHedge"]
---

# NaturalProblem

A problem in which meta-accuracy trades off against meta-precision, so that solving it requires changing shape

Layer: Mind · Category: Reasoning

## Mechanism

In an artificial problem one target and one yardstick are fixed in advance, so [MetaPrecision](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaPrecision.md) and [MetaAccuracy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaAccuracy.md) coincide: ranking attempts on the shared scale and improving the best ones is the way to succeed. In a natural problem any means of success is admitted, there are several targets in different codes (niches, functions, environments), and comparing attempts is a separate problem from succeeding. Raising [MetaAccuracy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaAccuracy.md) then lowers [MetaPrecision](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaPrecision.md): the more targets can be hit, the harder it is to rank attempts on one scale. Such problems have gaps between good states that cannot be crossed by improving against one metric step by step, so solutions switch target or code, as in [Exaptation](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/Exaptation.md). Natural selection is the paradigm case. Treating a natural problem as an artificial one is the [LudicFallacy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/LudicFallacy.md).

## Invariants

- In an artificial problem [MetaPrecision](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaPrecision.md) and [MetaAccuracy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaAccuracy.md) are the same thing
- In a natural problem they trade off
- Solutions to natural problems involve changing shape, target or code

## Preconditions

- More than one target or code of success is available to the system

## Failure modes

- Optimising against one metric and getting stuck in a local optimum the problem's other targets would have avoided
- Taking the inability to rank solutions as a sign of failure rather than as the signature of a natural problem
- Committing the [LudicFallacy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/LudicFallacy.md) by modelling natural selection or a market as a single-yardstick optimisation

## Builds on

- [Exaptation](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/Exaptation.md) (Physics; References)
- [LudicFallacy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/LudicFallacy.md) (Mind; References)
- [MetaAccuracy](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaAccuracy.md) (Mind; References)
- [MetaPrecision](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/MetaPrecision.md) (Mind; References)

## Used by

- [ConcurrentBetHedge](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/ConcurrentBetHedge.md) (Mind; References)

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:NaturalProblem#mh:SHA-256:ea59543ebcccb8df82bcc1a5e3dace47428a178230154ac53345b0e39daae102`
- Ref: `NaturalProblem#ea59`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/NaturalProblem/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/#NaturalProblem)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/NaturalProblem.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.pages.dev/origin-of-risk/index.json)