{
  "handle": "BalancedScopeChange",
  "gloss": "Let scope move in and out of a project in balance, so the resource forecast stays intact while the delivered value rises",
  "mechanism": "Project management usually treats scope creep as a risk and locks scope down to protect the estimate. But locking scope is a proxy for reliable resource prediction, not the goal. Under {{resource_shape_separation}}, an accurate high-level estimate can allow goals to change during the project, as long as items leaving scope roughly balance items entering it, just as a monthly rainfall forecast stays right whichever days it rains. The project then collects the {{information_dividend}} of reprioritising on short-range information without breaking its forecast. If plans are realistic, in and out should balance or be covered by contingency; persistent imbalance signals over-ambitious planning, not a reason to forbid change.",
  "invariants": [
    "The resource forecast is preserved when additions and removals balance",
    "Scope changes are made on reliable short-range information",
    "Persistent imbalance is a planning signal, not a scope-change failure"
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "A realistic high-level resource estimate with some contingency"
  ],
  "failure_modes": [
    "Freezing scope and so delivering less value than the same resources allowed",
    "Adding scope without removing any, breaking the forecast",
    "Hiding an over-ambitious plan behind scope flexibility"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "path": [
      "Society",
      "Coordination"
    ],
    "ring": 2,
    "tier": 2,
    "source": "Adam Timlett, On the Origin of Risk (2025), Ch 7 p.60-62"
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:BalancedScopeChange#mh:SHA-256:94e1ba81b233cf8461371d7777d0c4342aa94a04628ee421915460b9c470b4a0",
  "sema_ref": "BalancedScopeChange#94e1",
  "sema_stub": "94e1",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "information_dividend": "sema:InformationDividend#mh:SHA-256:80a31b65e2e233ba0230d8a6477e43b1d8308ae8a020e5135f1665602ec79280",
      "resource_shape_separation": "sema:ResourceShapeSeparation#mh:SHA-256:a134b6a1aba900011db79661ee8a6c3cb9a4cc1e0da8ff78e1286afc9954a657"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Society",
  "sema_category": "Coordination",
  "used_by": {}
}