{
  "handle": "HypothesisLadder",
  "mechanism": "The agent explicitly lists its current hypotheses about the world state and assigns probabilities. As new data arrives, it updates these probabilities using {{bayes_update}}. It acts on the highest-probability {{hypothesis}} but keeps others alive. It structures {{abduction}} into falsifiable rungs, climbing to higher certainty only when an {{experiment}} validates the current level.",
  "gloss": "Bayesian belief updating via falsification rungs",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Clinging to low-probability priors."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "Ascension Rule: Cannot move to {{hypothesis}}(N+1) until {{hypothesis}}(N) is validated by evidence.",
    "Exclusivity: Hypotheses at the same rung must be mutually exclusive (required for Bayesian probability assignment).",
    "Falsifiability: Each rung must have a testable disprove condition."
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "Data is valid"
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "{{experiment}} defined"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "ring": 2,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:e739d24ffb9b7c57bf309404838cdd21a4c39d6aa48b72e6565c98a8767f9fa7",
      "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:b8cd4534d34515209818259fc96a079f2813f4673326b4b844d53780a3f5c4e1",
      "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:5f0c04b152f81423c0ed9daa5433cd2d0be8413c6d5790c4cee54ea54ab488b5",
      "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:fac9530cb1134c155f1ef116fd84ee6d4f8b076222be67f7292384efce8e4381",
      "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:cbd75b0550a7903a8d7a8a24d9b06bbb61b52d52035608ba89617b42330ba9fe"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Strategy"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:58b55c2c1b13ca27b222e139e54f0ee01116e8f3706428654aaa551b08cccfc8",
  "sema_ref": "HypothesisLadder#58b5",
  "sema_stub": "58b5",
  "dependencies": {
    "composes_with": {
      "experiment": "sema:Experiment#mh:SHA-256:421e41c03e27f10e09c08b1f884bbcb9addf0f232be0a5bf1097950b40f15748"
    },
    "references": {
      "abduction": "sema:Abduction#mh:SHA-256:e738d3035534bba0a6b165325ba64818abb897a0f6b9848bc00c7c17ca146921",
      "bayes_update": "sema:BayesUpdate#mh:SHA-256:865637baf030de8ee9babd2a2fdddbf68d99353516aa86eef07cf6bc1e8a5d38",
      "hypothesis": "sema:Hypothesis#mh:SHA-256:09894332330937ab8ffd172087883db3adeddf6b7d4ca2befe31832416dedc14"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Strategy",
  "used_by": {}
}