{
  "handle": "EpistemicROI",
  "mechanism": "{{value}} of Information (VOI) analysis. Before executing an information-gathering {{task}} ({{experiment}}, Probe, Research), calculate: (1) The range of possible {{outcome}}s, (2) The {{decision}} you would make for each {{outcome}}. (3) If the {{decision}} is the same regardless of {{outcome}}, VOI = 0. (4) If different, VOI = {{value}}(Better {{decision}}) - Cost({{experiment}}). Only proceed if VOI > 0. It evaluates whether to {{act}} on expensive patterns by checking if the information gain justifies the {{compute_budget}}.",
  "gloss": "Calculating the economic value of reducing uncertainty",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Overestimation of Pivot: Assuming you will change your mind when you actually won't (Confirmation {{cognitive_bias}}).",
    "Underestimation of Cost: Ignoring the time/compute cost of the experiment itself."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "The {{experiment}} has at least two {{outcome}}s leading to different actions.",
    "Expected value of the information exceeds the cost of acquiring it."
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "Cost of experiment is estimable",
    "{{decision}} context is defined"
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "Go/No-Go decision based on ROI"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "ring": 2,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:EpistemicROI#mh:SHA-256:82a2da9aee8241835a3b8f370816bdd2d1e4e019cd28b52b285244ffe306b7da",
      "sema:EpistemicROI#mh:SHA-256:742adc7d76282f41c66582e1e780930e5f83f792084fa83ac9b01f510ecaf5b0",
      "sema:EpistemicROI#mh:SHA-256:d48670433cb6617e8e1914f9d062939bb852ef2b7188e17a1cbb1803b81dad1e",
      "sema:EpistemicROI#mh:SHA-256:7b6393c9e9cc8e3294a612b9c92f5a6f88b4cce82ec590577a24cada19811672"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Strategy"
    ],
    "related": [
      "ActionConvergence"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:EpistemicROI#mh:SHA-256:b0d863d10c0d67edc218444b72c75f05127b899af6ac0295899b6506cba9acc7",
  "sema_ref": "EpistemicROI#b0d8",
  "sema_stub": "b0d8",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "act": "sema:Act#mh:SHA-256:2dfedd75a396f2639ce949b9f5270766350b9c7404d404c11c57140fcf030455",
      "cognitive_bias": "sema:CognitiveBias#mh:SHA-256:c8a4abe2e0ce048be16d25f890a50f8c7095e099b5ab2de23aa059942328f387",
      "compute_budget": "sema:ComputeBudget#mh:SHA-256:4091ac7c6677342920dc53808d02830e35c5849f2af1bb9ba7749c576d37478e",
      "decision": "sema:Decision#mh:SHA-256:b1407127acd4a39314fc24b418310e4b95e0347e4e22f376151ab765e2dfd2c7",
      "experiment": "sema:Experiment#mh:SHA-256:421e41c03e27f10e09c08b1f884bbcb9addf0f232be0a5bf1097950b40f15748",
      "outcome": "sema:Outcome#mh:SHA-256:753768dae28040f1291ee2849d2aac2a08bbffd836cfab679bdbea9a6ff7ec03",
      "task": "sema:Task#mh:SHA-256:a85010f508f85055170c396c8fa390125c1206888c565ac10651f3969a339f8d",
      "value": "sema:Value#mh:SHA-256:37fd75758d04cdd7f57a636ccb5394d463713d60c33b694e37ab71f4a5a896f8"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Strategy",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "Defer": "sema:Defer#mh:SHA-256:7c32a314cc801adf391bbf775b29c5d15e3e230aa80c38290231f1ca897bf0f7",
      "SurprisalUpdate": "sema:SurprisalUpdate#mh:SHA-256:26e53ade88809ac3ba9293b45db768fdbdb384a53cda1217c3a0dfc61d5f8408"
    }
  }
}