{
  "handle": "EpistemicCascade",
  "gloss": "A conclusion inherits the verification assurance of its weakest load-bearing premise.",
  "mechanism": "Before an assertion crosses a boundary (a message, a commit, an irreversible action), enumerate the premises it load-bears on and grade the assurance of each: Independent (a {{check}} by a method other than the one that produced the premise), Self (checked only by the producing process), or None ({{assumption}}). A {{check}} yields a {{status}}; this pattern grades what that outcome is worth given how it was obtained, so a Verified premise carrying only Self assurance does not raise the closure. The assertion's assurance is the minimum over that closure; reasoning quality above a weakly assured premise cannot raise it. To upgrade, select the premise with the highest ratio of downstream cost to checking cost and apply {{verification}} by an independent method, then re-derive. Where no check is possible before the boundary, the assertion carries its assurance explicitly instead of borrowing confidence from fluency ({{epistemic_calibrate}}), and {{belief_tracking}} records the pending premises so later evidence can settle them.",
  "invariants": [
    "Assurance(conclusion) never exceeds min(Assurance(premise)) over its load-bearing premises.",
    "A premise checked only by the process that produced it carries Self assurance at most; Independent requires a method that did not produce it.",
    "Assurance changes only through verification events, never through repetition or restatement."
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "The assertion's load-bearing premises can be enumerated.",
    "The boundary crossing is identifiable before it happens."
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "Every boundary-crossing assertion carries an explicit assurance grade.",
    "The weakest load-bearing premise is either independently verified or declared."
  ],
  "failure_modes": [
    "Polishing reasoning downstream of a weakly assured premise: rigor above does not repair assurance below.",
    "Verifying the cheapest premise instead of the most load-bearing one.",
    "Confidence laundering: an assertion crosses a boundary and the reader assigns it an assurance it never earned."
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "ring": 2,
    "tier": 1,
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Reasoning"
    ],
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:EpistemicCascade#mh:SHA-256:a4895b4b9ee695aa277d757aac2bed96e7a9b9ecbaba4936300296aa143185d2",
      "sema:EpistemicCascade#mh:SHA-256:5deb0cd3e65bed8943c6bd6bc78d9abd6edfb8ea6652a9d85adb9521a38789cc"
    ],
    "related": [
      "Twoledger#a560"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:EpistemicCascade#mh:SHA-256:00ae0d471938ddbddaec91d4e7936d31d21e0e52cbb9a7064dbd37f66dd513c4",
  "sema_ref": "EpistemicCascade#00ae",
  "sema_stub": "00ae",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "assumption": "sema:Assumption#mh:SHA-256:d99bf34ffd59aa1c8ca25f5477b1df297b8a2f9cf992c242de73d13aef88a097",
      "belief_tracking": "sema:BeliefTracking#mh:SHA-256:c78d68a1f4fe92e2f284e489f6987bc42183245181c6710b9d0c9e582b054e13",
      "check": "sema:Check#mh:SHA-256:6890b221c38531710528cd84bbf3a957e29d9836dfc9c02669fc0a86709bcb00",
      "epistemic_calibrate": "sema:EpistemicCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:4d4c4a79c03f1ed0c946e0e21fd76efccf7a5d9fb688f2bb59ab6065e8b1573a",
      "status": "sema:Status#mh:SHA-256:8e6f3b6c796ea10bd810932d983144bd3b5b732f0dca26f960df0572c1479c80",
      "verification": "sema:Verification#mh:SHA-256:c8de453752e750eb54e0494e7a222377cea99a739b049087ab426cd968b38778"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Reasoning",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "Twoledger": "sema:Twoledger#mh:SHA-256:a560e73281de99e69ebee03f6efd242925bc0acc238fdbb87fd8542666b56985"
    }
  }
}