{
  "handle": "ConfidenceCalibrate",
  "mechanism": "Track Record Alignment: For claims rated 70% confident, ~70% should be true. Track predictions vs outcomes. If 90% claims are right only 60% of time, you are overconfident—widen uncertainty. If 90% claims are right 99% of time, you are underconfident—tighten. It adjusts the internal probability model using {{bayes_update}} on historical accuracy data, ensuring {{base_rate_include}} is respected.",
  "gloss": "Aligning subjective confidence with objective frequency",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Over-correction: the {{agent}} becomes under-confident to avoid being wrong, refusing to act on strong signals.",
    "Thin record: calibrating across `bin_count` bins on too few predictions fits noise, not bias."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "Calibrates against a recorded track record of predictions and their outcomes.",
    "Expected calibration error stays within `calibration_target`.",
    "The adjusted confidence-to-frequency mapping is monotonic non-decreasing."
  ],
  "parameters": [
    {
      "name": "bin_count",
      "type": "Integer",
      "range": "[5, 20]",
      "description": "Resolution of calibration measurement"
    },
    {
      "name": "calibration_target",
      "type": "Float",
      "range": "[0.02, 0.15]",
      "description": "Max expected calibration error, ECE"
    }
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 2,
    "ring": 2,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:ConfidenceCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:0ae5f1a670925e132d49a7d8fd9abc773a598b53dbd0cb734d8081d23e5cdc60",
      "sema:ConfidenceCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:7b1a65d6e8cf7c3b9a796eda44de5cd87a557ea5286586c62a154555572d75af",
      "sema:ConfidenceCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:2145c5873b279328a11295f73c44fe0953b563304f90855ba7e87dea27ab1c91",
      "sema:ConfidenceCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:b67f7a783230af47e31671db599009496efef1eeb4c1751f83a5e3677be8b5ca"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Inference"
    ],
    "related": [
      "Certaintyclap#5dcc"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:ConfidenceCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:e3570290d420b5bf59848ccc1d269530bbb3124b2e1a4583e62dc2a901ab16ac",
  "sema_ref": "ConfidenceCalibrate#e357",
  "sema_stub": "e357",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "agent": "sema:Agent#mh:SHA-256:e127459069739fffc96a71d54ef6e8c97ca53471d5349c16aa72a092a33756cd",
      "base_rate_include": "sema:BaseRateInclude#mh:SHA-256:1e637d4655d2b503d5cc333935aa74aabb13d09f174577f4d6cdf0de77688569",
      "bayes_update": "sema:BayesUpdate#mh:SHA-256:865637baf030de8ee9babd2a2fdddbf68d99353516aa86eef07cf6bc1e8a5d38"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Inference",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "Certaintyclap": "sema:Certaintyclap#mh:SHA-256:5dcc5a44c6cb9fb0a92dc41f728a4bd472ed24158761b3ae52c3391ca7d3a108",
      "UncertaintyMap": "sema:UncertaintyMap#mh:SHA-256:c412e49c71a44e86aba623c9487e9d4d589d863ff0c76391c45f8f7d26e08a9e"
    }
  }
}