{
  "handle": "CognitiveEcho",
  "mechanism": "Variance-Based Effort Estimation: {{agent}} runs N rapid, low-fidelity simulations of the task. If outcomes diverge significantly, it triggers decomposition. Ping the problem before solving it. High variance in simulation implies hidden complexity. Process: (1) Generate N quick solution sketches, (2) Measure outcome variance, (3) If variance > threshold, decompose; else execute simplest solution.",
  "gloss": "Estimating difficulty via simulation variance",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Correlated Hallucination: All simulations are wrong in the exact same way (low variance, high error).",
    "The simulation model might be too simple to catch edge cases (false negative).",
    "{{simulation}} cost may exceed just trying the task for truly simple problems.",
    "Sample count is arbitrary - tuning required."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "Delay does not exceed short-term memory bounds",
    "Echo content matches input semantic hash"
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "Feedback loop enabled",
    "Input signal"
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "{{signal}} amplified or validated"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "related": [
      "SignalReflection"
    ],
    "ring": 2,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:CognitiveEcho#mh:SHA-256:4a95eb01f8da6218a9e6a63ab78128286771cc9cc9e9f9716892177fa3af3758",
      "sema:CognitiveEcho#mh:SHA-256:ae14cdfccac0833037b3e3efed7c259cac9f4cbb3aa2c0279ffd6fb546b668b8",
      "sema:CognitiveEcho#mh:SHA-256:9e10b92d9178aa5933b360f02fd1a7783328f042f9d190df36863e9701a943ed"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Reasoning"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:CognitiveEcho#mh:SHA-256:c84c09c719fa97e50268c901a737cf5812e92cfe9d8f81b69d4a5e511d565954",
  "sema_ref": "CognitiveEcho#c84c",
  "sema_stub": "c84c",
  "dependencies": {
    "references": {
      "agent": "sema:Agent#mh:SHA-256:e127459069739fffc96a71d54ef6e8c97ca53471d5349c16aa72a092a33756cd",
      "signal": "sema:Signal#mh:SHA-256:6eaff8a06e08e75279670bc09d88175d130815240fdfb3a21252c0364769c1fc",
      "simulation": "sema:Simulation#mh:SHA-256:1058e7090079e846251ed480d7afec0328809d22bebb6b205425b2de614787c3"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Reasoning",
  "used_by": {}
}