---
slug: "BaseRateInclude"
name: "BaseRateInclude"
type: "Inference"
layer: "Mind"
ref: "BaseRateInclude#1e63"
sema_id: "sema:BaseRateInclude#mh:SHA-256:1e637d4655d2b503d5cc333935aa74aabb13d09f174577f4d6cdf0de77688569"
tags: ["Mind","Inference"]
updated: 2026-11-11
mindscape: "bootstrap"
index_url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/index.json
url: https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/BaseRateInclude/
related: ["BayesUpdate","ConfidenceCalibrate","SurvivorCorrect"]
---

# BaseRateInclude

Outside view over inside view

Layer: Mind · Category: Inference

## Mechanism

Prior probability anchor. Fix the reference class and its base rate before examining the specific case, then adjust for case-specific evidence. Vividness is not evidence. Evidence that places the case in a different reference class changes the prior by changing the class — a reclassification, not an adjustment.

## Invariants

- The reference class and its base rate are fixed before the case is examined.
- The prior states its source; the posterior states the evidence that moved it.
- A change of reference class is recorded as one, with the new base rate.

## Preconditions

- A reference class with a base rate — measured, or estimated and labelled as such
- Specific case evidence

## Postconditions

- Probability estimate adjusted towards mean

## Failure modes

- Reference Class Tennis: cherry-picking a favourable class.
- Stale prior: the class is right and its rate is out of date.

## Builds on

—

## Used by

- [BayesUpdate](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/BayesUpdate.md) (Mind; References)
- [ConfidenceCalibrate](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/ConfidenceCalibrate.md) (Mind; References)
- [SurvivorCorrect](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/SurvivorCorrect.md) (Mind; References)

## Identity

- Sema ID: `sema:BaseRateInclude#mh:SHA-256:1e637d4655d2b503d5cc333935aa74aabb13d09f174577f4d6cdf0de77688569`
- Ref: `BaseRateInclude#1e63`
- Supersedes:
  - `sema:BaseRateInclude#mh:SHA-256:8636331d386b5d9b9f7b6177fa3d3486699c5cc486e823cafb7065ae7554b5a5`

## Links

- [Pattern page](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/BaseRateInclude/)
- [View in the interactive graph](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/#BaseRateInclude)
- [JSON](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/BaseRateInclude.json)
- [Index of all patterns](https://mindscape.pages.dev/bootstrap/index.json)