{
  "handle": "BaseRateInclude",
  "mechanism": "Prior probability anchor. Fix the reference class and its base rate before examining the specific case, then adjust for case-specific evidence. Vividness is not evidence. Evidence that places the case in a different reference class changes the prior by changing the class — a reclassification, not an adjustment.",
  "gloss": "Outside view over inside view",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Reference Class Tennis: cherry-picking a favourable class.",
    "Stale prior: the class is right and its rate is out of date."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "The reference class and its base rate are fixed before the case is examined.",
    "The prior states its source; the posterior states the evidence that moved it.",
    "A change of reference class is recorded as one, with the new base rate."
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "A reference class with a base rate — measured, or estimated and labelled as such",
    "Specific case evidence"
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "Probability estimate adjusted towards mean"
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "tier": 1,
    "related": [
      "BayesUpdate"
    ],
    "ring": 2,
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Inference"
    ],
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:BaseRateInclude#mh:SHA-256:8636331d386b5d9b9f7b6177fa3d3486699c5cc486e823cafb7065ae7554b5a5"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:BaseRateInclude#mh:SHA-256:1e637d4655d2b503d5cc333935aa74aabb13d09f174577f4d6cdf0de77688569",
  "sema_ref": "BaseRateInclude#1e63",
  "sema_stub": "1e63",
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Inference",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "BayesUpdate": "sema:BayesUpdate#mh:SHA-256:865637baf030de8ee9babd2a2fdddbf68d99353516aa86eef07cf6bc1e8a5d38",
      "ConfidenceCalibrate": "sema:ConfidenceCalibrate#mh:SHA-256:e3570290d420b5bf59848ccc1d269530bbb3124b2e1a4583e62dc2a901ab16ac",
      "SurvivorCorrect": "sema:SurvivorCorrect#mh:SHA-256:37802a37d7e4bc9080836e17c5fbf7c170bce0942ed40d8a4960c46f6ca2407c"
    }
  }
}