{
  "handle": "Abduction",
  "mechanism": "Inference to the best explanation. Given a surprising observation, generate candidate explanations and {{rank}} them by simplicity, scope, and coherence with existing knowledge. Adopt the highest-ranked as working {{hypothesis}}, flagged as provisional — not proven. Uses {{chain_of_thought}} to trace the reasoning path from observation to explanation so the inferential leap is explicit and verifiable. The classical third mode of reasoning alongside {{deduction}} (necessary) and {{induction}} (probable from instances): Abduction is probable from a single anomaly plus background knowledge.",
  "gloss": "Inference to the best explanation — provisional, ranked by simplicity/scope/coherence",
  "failure_modes": [
    "Conspiracy Thinking: Preferring complex, coherent explanations over simple, messy ones (overfitting the narrative).",
    "Stopping too early: adopting the first plausible explanation without considering alternatives.",
    "Treating the provisional hypothesis as proven in downstream reasoning."
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "At least two candidate explanations are compared.",
    "The explanation covers every observed anomaly in the input.",
    "Occam's Razor decides between candidates of similar scope.",
    "The output is flagged provisional, never asserted as proven."
  ],
  "preconditions": [
    "Set of observations, at least one unexplained by existing model.",
    "No deductive path to the explanation."
  ],
  "postconditions": [
    "{{hypothesis}} generated and ranked by likelihood.",
    "Working hypothesis adopted with provisional status."
  ],
  "_meta": {
    "ring": 1,
    "tier": 1,
    "supersedes": [
      "sema:AbductiveLeap#mh:SHA-256:1069501989760c74143a80a2a2ee3267463e206d8998c76d38399c2498e8791d",
      "sema:Abduction#mh:SHA-256:fe2b40824246fd245dec338d1615e791787806b540b9376aae5fac14c48ce02b",
      "sema:Abduction#mh:SHA-256:645a69eb0efc448f5d305213a42abac7e1158f9b59825c5f22fbd6e60d6d5841",
      "sema:Abduction#mh:SHA-256:b62e330c794af8e7e3990c4fe74b75fc944f31df213835a5fba0f792904f4863"
    ],
    "path": [
      "Mind",
      "Reasoning"
    ],
    "related": [
      "EvidenceUnderdetermination"
    ]
  },
  "sema_id": "sema:Abduction#mh:SHA-256:e738d3035534bba0a6b165325ba64818abb897a0f6b9848bc00c7c17ca146921",
  "sema_ref": "Abduction#e738",
  "sema_stub": "e738",
  "dependencies": {
    "composes_with": {
      "chain_of_thought": "sema:ChainOfThought#mh:SHA-256:27ad1f2386f58e1f9e1983c97f6dbeb8f1345e1d9b9e00af30871b97d21e0c95"
    },
    "references": {
      "deduction": "sema:Deduction#mh:SHA-256:b9a034741d2b404c84277fed48ce23edb262b9a9f3166ae27fdb431d006dd6ec",
      "hypothesis": "sema:Hypothesis#mh:SHA-256:09894332330937ab8ffd172087883db3adeddf6b7d4ca2befe31832416dedc14",
      "induction": "sema:Induction#mh:SHA-256:1b39044c28c83bf79a7bfe108d0edaf616724b3cc0e9fec93086913101fc1530",
      "rank": "sema:Rank#mh:SHA-256:67c6fb568c5fdcfbd0de64b8a5413e943378d421dee9d5614c827e3c539bde3f"
    }
  },
  "sema_layer": "Mind",
  "sema_category": "Reasoning",
  "used_by": {
    "references": {
      "HypothesisLadder": "sema:HypothesisLadder#mh:SHA-256:58b55c2c1b13ca27b222e139e54f0ee01116e8f3706428654aaa551b08cccfc8"
    }
  }
}